Daily Briefing · 2026-09-21

In state parliamentary elections in northeastern Germany, the far-right party "Alternative for Germany" is projected to surge to become the largest party, raising concerns about political instability in Europe and pressure on the euro. In Russia, the first lower house elections since the invasion were held, with Putin's ruling United Russia party taking a substantial lead, potentially somewhat easing market uncertainty stemming from continuity of the regime. In the Middle East, Iran has warned of attacks on US military bases, with renewed tensions strengthening energy price increases and investor risk-aversion stances. Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries have damaged energy infrastructure around Moscow, raising concerns about damage to the Russian economy. President Zelensky is expected to request economic and military support for progress in peace negotiations and strengthened air defense in his meeting with President Trump. North Korea launched a short-range ballistic missile, bringing instability to East Asian financial markets while increasing pressure on Japan and South Korea to raise defense spending. It has also been confirmed that North Korean workers are engaged in manufacturing military drones, raising concerns about accelerated foreign currency acquisition under sanctions. In China, Premier Li Qiang has reiterated that the Taiwan issue is an inviolable red line during President Trump's visit to China, with risks of instability in trade relations continuing. Japan and Europe emphasized protection of critical shipping routes at ministerial-level economic dialogue, with positive effects expected for trade flows while concerns over geopolitical risks also persist. Regarding Iran-US ceasefire negotiations, receipt of a proposal from the US has been confirmed, though the impact on economic relations remains unclear. Next, domestic topics. Due to the effects of Typhoon No. 25, numerous flights have been cancelled or delayed, raising concerns about declining revenue in the aviation industry. In Shibuya, the number of young visitors decreased by 15% year-over-year for the same period, with declining sales expected at surrounding commercial facilities. On cruise ships, suspected infections among passengers and crew are spreading, raising concerns about expanding financial losses for the industry. Additionally, the ongoing nationwide decline in the number of public bathhouses (sento) is highlighting expanding regional disparities against the backdrop of regional economic conditions and changing consumer demand due to aging populations. Finally, it has been pointed out that the Pope's criticism of President Trump could have ripple effects on the US and international relations, though the direct financial impact is seen as limited.