Daily Briefing · 2026-09-21

Amid expectations of further Fed rate hikes and strong dollar pressure, the won-dollar exchange rate has settled in the 1380 won range, nearing a breakthrough of 1400 won. US Treasury yields have also surged to 5.40 percent, increasing the burden of foreign exchange losses on export and import companies. In the stock market, the KOSPI surged 2.66 percent. Amid concerns over memory semiconductor supply shortages, semiconductor stocks such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix showed strength. However, trading value fell sharply from 138 trillion won to 56 trillion won, raising concerns about poor third-quarter earnings for securities firms as well. Export indicators continued their strong performance. Mid-September exports recorded an all-time high of 71.4 billion dollars, with semiconductor exports surging 260 percent to account for 48 percent of total exports. International affairs are also drawing attention. As President Trump's decision on Iran response approaches, concerns are growing over Middle East-driven oil prices and financial market volatility. At the same time, ahead of President Xi Jinping's visit to the White House for the first time in 11 years, the semiconductor index rose 2.7 percent, with markets reacting positively. On the other hand, the Korea-US investment negotiations have fallen into a last-minute deadlock over commercial reasonableness issues, raising the possibility that the negotiations could collapse. There was also news that Korean government bonds' inclusion in the World Government Bond Index is expected to bring in 70 trillion won to 90 trillion won in global capital inflows. In the real estate market, Seoul apartment jeonse prices surged 7.8 percent this year, reaching their highest level in 11 years. In the Gangbuk area, jeonse prices for 84 square meter units in Seongbuk and Dongdaemun districts have soared to over 1 billion won, increasing the burden on actual demand buyers. The balloon effect is also intensifying, with government regulations causing Gangnam to decline while outlying areas surge. However, there are expectations for stabilization through expanded supply, as 23,000 public housing units will be supplied in Goyang and Uiwang, Gyeonggi Province starting in 2029, and October apartment move-in volume will increase by 65 percent. In the industrial sector, Hyundai Engineering & Construction achieved 10 trillion won in urban redevelopment project orders for the second consecutive year, solidifying its position as the industry leader. Kia surpassed 100,000 units in domestic electric vehicle sales, setting a first-ever record among automakers. Global ESS battery shipments surged 71 percent in the first half, continuing their growth trend driven by expanding AI data center demand. Defense companies are expanding into the Latin American market, centered on Peru. In terms of household finances, interest expenses for low-income households are surging at five times the rate of income growth, deepening financial burdens. While average monthly wages rose 3 percent due to increased semiconductor performance bonuses, the gap between large corporations and small and medium-sized enterprises widened to 220,000 won. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin recovered to the 80,000 dollar level, with domestic related stocks rising sharply. In the fintech industry, Naver and Toss are intensifying competition to preempt the facial payment market.